Kabul — A leaked Taliban intelligence report obtained by Afghanistan International has exposed deepening fissures within the group’s leadership; a Haqqanis vs. Kandaharis rift, warning that public anger is reaching “explosive levels” and could pave the way for the return of Afghanistan’s sidelined warlords.

The report, addressed to Abdul Haq Wasiq, head of the Taliban’s intelligence agency, underscores a growing crisis of legitimacy within the regime. It highlights that unless the Taliban leadership undertakes urgent reforms, disillusionment with governance, internal rivalries, and economic hardships could spiral out of control.

Crisis Within the Taliban

According to the translated report, Taliban intelligence analysts warn that if the group does not reverse its restrictive policies, widespread dissatisfaction will soon reach “explosive levels.” The assessment points to a deepening legitimacy crisis, widening fractures in leadership, and the potential return of former powerbrokers, dynamics that could erode Taliban dominance.

Civil liberties crackdowns, rigid social controls, especially targeting women, and opaque economic decision-making have, according to the report, widened the gulf between rulers and ruled. “The crisis in governance and internal disputes over the future path have reached a point where they can no longer be ignored,” the translated report reads.

So far, the Taliban leadership has not officially commented on the leak, and it remains unclear whether Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada in Kandahar has received the intelligence input.

Rift Between Haqqanis and Kandaharis

HTN correspondents on the ground report that the internal divisions are becoming more pronounced, with the Haqqani network and the Kandahari camp increasingly at odds.

Sources indicate that the Haqqanis, led by Sirajuddin Haqqani and his allies, have positioned themselves as pragmatists willing to engage with international demands, including reconsidering policies on girls’ education, if Kandahari dominance can be curtailed. They are also pressing for greater control of Afghan embassies abroad, seeking direct representation of Afghanistan.

By contrast, the Kandahari faction, loyal to Akhundzada, has been quietly sidelining Haqqani loyalists from senior director and deputy-director level posts in government ministries, consolidating their hold on the state apparatus.

The Bagram Factor

While Trump’s demand focused on Bagram, ground reports suggest that up to five airbases, stretching from Parwan to Nangarhar, have been floated in various proposals. The very discussion of airbase control has sharpened Taliban factionalism, with Haqqani figures accused by rivals of being too open to external bargaining.

The symbolism of Bagram itself is not lost on Afghans. Once the centerpiece of the United States military presence, located less than 800 kilometers from China’s Xinjiang border, it represents both foreign intervention and strategic leverage. Kabul’s rejection of Trump’s request underscores the Taliban’s desire to project sovereignty, but internal whispers suggest that factions may see value in reopening negotiations under certain conditions.

Broader Regional Concerns

Adding to the complexity, Sadar Ibrahim, deputy interior minister and close aide to Akhundzada, continues to oversee the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) portfolio, a point of friction with Islamabad. Pakistani officials remain deeply concerned that cross-border militancy is being tolerated, if not enabled, by elements of the Taliban leadership. Despite repeated Pakistani warnings, Kabul has yet to effectively curtail TTP sanctuaries on Afghan soil.

Meanwhile, open-source intelligence (OSINT) reports have flagged drone flights over Kandahar and Nangarhar, adding further unease on the ground. Locals interviewed by HTN correspondents describe an atmosphere of suspicion and insecurity, where factional rivalries now overlap with fears of renewed external intervention.

The Return of the Warlords?

Perhaps most striking in the intelligence report is the warning that Afghanistan’s once-diminished warlords could return if public disillusionment grows. Figures tied to the Northern Alliance or former strongmen who once commanded militias may find new space if Taliban divisions deepen.

The Haqqanis’ reported outreach to former president Hamid Karzai and other regime figures suggests that even within the Taliban, alliances are being recalibrated. If such dynamics gain momentum, the movement could face not only an internal legitimacy crisis but also the rise of alternative power centers reminiscent of Afghanistan’s turbulent past.

Ground Pulse

HTN’s correspondents on the ground in Kabul and Pak-Afghan border areas describe a tense political atmosphere. Citizens, weary of economic stagnation and social restrictions, quietly express frustration but fear open dissent due to heavy surveillance. “People are angry, but they are cautious,” one resident told HTN. “The feeling is that sooner or later, something will break.”

For now, the Taliban leadership projects unity in public, insisting that Afghanistan will not bend to foreign pressure. Yet the leaked report, coupled with Trump’s airbase demand and the visible Haqqani-Kandahari rift, paints a more fragile picture, suggesting that the group’s most serious threat may not come from foreign capitals, but from within its own fractured leadership and disillusioned population.

As one Afghan political analyst told HTN on condition of anonymity, the Taliban may soon face a stark choice: reform policies to ease domestic and international pressure, or risk fragmentation that could bring back the very warlords they once fought to overthrow.