The latest UN Security Council Monitoring Team report (S/2025/796) cuts through months of political messaging and lays bare an uncomfortable truth: Afghanistan today is governed, not reconciled.
The Taliban have asserted control, and reduced certain visible threats but the deeper currents shaping the country remain dangerously unstable.
What exists is surface calm resting on structural fragility and the UN’s own language makes this clear.
The report bluntly states that while there is “a measure of internal peace and security… this benefits some parts of society more than others.”
Its further notes that the Taliban “have continued to consolidate their hold on power,” but that this stability “often comes at the expense of human rights abuses and internal repression.”
Stability imposed through fear is not the same as peace sustained through legitimacy and Afghanistan today reflects this divide.
A state held together by control and denial
The Taliban claim repeatedly that no terrorist groups operate from Afghan soil. The UN’s assessment is explicit that “Such claims are not credible.”
More than 20 international and regional terrorist organizations remain active, and regional states “generally see Afghanistan as a source of insecurity.”
At the center of this unresolved threat is Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) identified by the UN as the primary cross-border destabilizer. The report documents:
- “TTP has conducted numerous high-profile attacks against Pakistan from Afghan soil.”
- “This issue poses the greatest short-term threat to the de facto authorities’ stability.”
- “The Taliban are unlikely to confront or act against TTP.”
- “The de facto authorities continue to maintain that no terrorist groups operate in, or from, its territory. Such claims are not credible.”
- “In particular, Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP, QDe.132) has conducted numerous high-profile attacks in Pakistan from Afghan soil.”
These findings validate what Pakistan has argued for years that regional stability requires verifiable action, not rhetorical assurances.
The UN further notes that Al-Qaida remains “embedded and protected,” with senior commanders residing in Kabul, and ISIS-K expanding external operations using AI, crypto-financing and child recruitment.
None of this aligns with claims that Afghanistan has turned a security corner.
A humanitarian and economic crisis masked by narratives
While the Taliban highlight poppy eradication, the UN outlines the unintended consequence. An expanding methamphetamine economy.
UNODC confirms “a discernible increase in methamphetamine seizures,” signaling a shift to synthetic drugs that can destabilize entire regions.
Meanwhile, the social cost is staggering:
- “8 out of 10 Afghan women are excluded from education, employment and training.”
- “Afghanistan has the second widest gender gap in the world.”
- Taliban policies cost the economy “over $1 billion per year.”
This is less governance and more containment of the public, of dissent, and of opportunity.
A region living with the consequences
Regional states including Pakistan, Iran, China, Russia and Central Asian partners measure cooperation through behavior, not speeches.
Yet the UN finds that Afghanistan’s decision-making remains opaque, unconsultative, and closed to scrutiny.
The report warns that without coordinated action threats will “spill over” across the region.
Refugee inflows, economic disruption, militant violence and border insecurity are consequences of unresolved internal weaknesses in Kabul not causes of them.
Control is not peace and Afghanistan cannot afford the illusion
The UN report captures the contradiction at the heart of the current system. The Taliban “do not seek popular support or consent,” and “leadership discussions and debate are not encouraged.”
Stability rooted in obedience may hold for now but it does not resolve extremist networks, economic collapse or international isolation.
The world cannot afford to mistake silence for consent, suppression for security, or control for peace.
If Afghanistan is to move beyond perpetual fragility, its rulers must shift from governing over the people to governing with them and must replace denials with verifiable action against the threats documented by the UN.
Until then, Afghanistan’s stability will remain what the UN describes: uneven, exclusionary, and at constant risk of unraveling, with the region bearing the cost.
