Balochistan – A confessional video of a captured Afghan national has reignited concerns over cross-border terrorism emanating from Afghanistan, drawing attention from regional stakeholders.

The video, released by the Government of Balochistan, featured Rafiullah, son of Muhammad and a resident of Kandahar, who admitted to carrying out attacks against Pakistani security forces and civilians under the command of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

According to official details, Rafiullah had been affiliated with the proscribed group for the past two years. He said he and his associates received training to carry out terrorism inside Pakistan and mobilised in Omer Madrassa in Kandahar, before entering Balochistan through the Chaman border on April 16, 2025. Rafiullah was arrested along with ten other operatives.

Divergent Narratives

The development comes amid rising tensions between Islamabad and Kabul. In a recent interview with analyst Imtiaz Gul (CRSS), Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid rejected accusations of harbouring militants, stressing that “blame games and use of force serve neither Pakistan’s interests nor Afghanistan’s.” He insisted Kabul wants brotherly relations and favours dialogue mechanisms.

By contrast, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif recently described Afghanistan as a “hostile country”, accusing Kabul of failing to act against TTP sanctuaries. He warned that the group’s presence on Afghan soil remains a red line for Islamabad.

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Security experts warn that an uptick in TTP activity in Balochistan could exacerbate existing instability, where the province already faces violence from the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). Analysts argue that emerging coordination between TTP and BLA reflects both external safe havens and Pakistan’s internal policy gaps, calling for a comprehensive national strategy combining state mechanisms with societal engagement.

UN Report Confirms TTP’s Expanding Reach

The 36th report of the UN Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team (July 2025) reinforced Pakistan’s concerns, noting that TTP operates in a “permissive environment” inside Afghanistan with access to advanced weaponry. The report estimated the group’s strength at 6,000 fighters, supported logistically and operationally by Afghanistan’s de facto authorities.

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The report further revealed that TTP maintains tactical ties with IS-Khorasan, Al Qaeda, and Baloch separatists, citing instances of shared training facilities in Walikot and Shorabak. According to one member state, in January 2025, TTP even provided training to militant groups operating in Balochistan, inside southern Afghanistan.

Analysts warn that the convergence of TTP and BLA militancy marks a dangerous escalation with serious regional implications. They stress that Pakistan must urgently tackle root causes, plug policy gaps, and foster stronger state-society coordination to confront this hybrid terrorist threat. 

The Chaman border crossing, a vital trade and transit link between Quetta and Kandahar, has once again emerged as a strategically exploited corridor for militant infiltration.