Taliban Miscalculation and the Weaponization of Afghan Soil
Since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, Pakistan has exercised unprecedented strategic patience and restraint. Islamabad extended every possible lifeline to Kabul from facilitating humanitarian aid, offering trade concessions, providing education and medical visas, to ensuring uninterrupted access to ports in Karachi and Gwadar. The expectation was simple: Afghanistan, under the Taliban, would not allow its territory to be weaponized against Pakistan.
Instead, the Taliban systematically betrayed Pakistan’s trust. Afghan soil has become a sanctuary for the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group directly responsible for attacks on Pakistani civilians and military personnel. Despite repeated warnings and high-level diplomatic engagement, including the Istanbul talks of November 2025, the Taliban’s inaction and hollow promises have forced Pakistan into decisive security responses.
It is critical to understand the asymmetry of loss. While Pakistan’s defensive measures such as border closures, stricter trade protocols, and mass repatriations, have caused some economic inconvenience, Afghanistan bears the overwhelming burden. Official trade volumes have collapsed by approximately 85%, from USD 6.5 billion in 2023 to roughly USD 1 billion in 2025 highlighting Kabul’s catastrophic mismanagement and the consequences of its strategic miscalculations.
Security Imperatives
- Post-2021 Security Deficit
The Taliban’s failure to control TTP activities has created a security vacuum along the 2,640 km Durand border. Cross-border attacks have surged, including high-profile incidents such as the killing of 11 Pakistani military personnel in Orakzai district. Pakistan’s restraint over four years underscores Islamabad’s commitment to diplomacy, yet Taliban inaction has necessitated defensive measures.
- TTP Attacks and Consequences
From 2021 to 2024, the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) significantly escalated its cross-border attacks against Pakistan, operating from sanctuaries inside Afghanistan. In 2021–22, around 282 attacks occurred, mostly probing operations, causing 609 Pakistani casualties, including both security personnel and civilians. The Torkham border was briefly closed 1–2 times, creating minor trade disruption. Despite Pakistan’s restraint, these early attacks signaled the Taliban’s unwillingness to control militant activity.
By 2022–23, TTP attacks increased to approximately 367, including ambushes on trade convoys and border posts. Casualties rose to over 1,000, highlighting the growing human cost. Trade losses also surged, with Pakistan experiencing $50 million per month in disrupted commerce and halved coal exports.
In 2023–24, the situation reached a critical point, with 482 attacks, including high-casualty suicide bombings, resulting in 1,081 Pakistani casualties. Thousands of trucks around 3,000 were stranded due to closures at Torkham and other passes. This is a clear strategic failure by the Taliban. By permitting TTP operations, they directly caused cross-border insecurity and economic disruption, compelling Pakistan to respond defensively. Pakistan’s security measures are reactive, not aggressive, and the Taliban’s failure to control the TTP is the primary driver of bilateral tensions.
- The TTP as an Alternative Power Center
By exploiting Taliban tolerance and border porosity, the TTP has entrenched itself in southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and ex-FATA regions, positioning itself as a parallel authority challenging Pakistan’s sovereignty. The Taliban’s inability and unwillingness to enforce control has made the Durand Border a de facto operational sanctuary for militants, directly linking Kabul’s policy failure to Pakistan’s defensive posture.
- Kabul’s Denial and Diplomatic Failures
While Pakistan clearly communicated the necessity of border security and TTP containment, the Taliban consistently denied responsibility. Their refusal to acknowledge the Durand Border and obstruct border fencing has made security assurances structurally impossible. Diplomatic engagement stemming from ceasefires in 2022, mediation by Qatar and Turkey and the Istanbul talks in November 2025 collapsed due to Taliban intransigence, leaving Pakistan no option but to enforce unilateral measures.
Pakistan’s Defensive Strategic Response
- Trade Restrictions as a Security Measure
Pakistan’s recalibration of border management is not a punitive act against Afghanistan but a strategic necessity. The Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) has been strictly enforced to reduce the risk of terrorism disguised as trade. Despite Afghanistan’s engagements with Iran, Chabahar, and Central Asian Republics, it is facing catastrophic economic losses, while Pakistan sustains minimal impact relative to the strategic security gains. The Taliban’s failure to manage the TTP has directly caused this asymmetry.
- Mass Repatriation and Demographic Pressure
Pakistan has deported over a million undocumented Afghans, pressuring the Taliban to take security responsibility. While criticized by Kabul, this measure is a logical response to unchecked cross-border terrorism. The Taliban, by allowing TTP sanctuaries, forced Pakistan into this unprecedented action, resulting in acute strain on Afghanistan’s governance and revenue.
Consequences of Taliban Policy
- Decline in Trade Volume
Pakistan’s border management policies evolved in response to Taliban inaction and TTP threats. In 2023, partial closures at Torkham, while inconvenient for Afghanistan, were aimed at preventing the movement of militants and securing trade routes. Pakistan experienced only minimal trade loss, as alternative logistics and internal adjustments mitigated the impact.
By 2024, stricter border protocols were enforced due to repeated TTP attacks. Trade volumes decreased from previous highs to $2.3 billion. While the Taliban may claim Pakistan’s actions were punitive, the reality is that Islamabad’s measures were carefully calibrated defensive strategies to secure its territory.
In 2025, after the collapse of the Istanbul talks and continuous Taliban inaction, Pakistan escalated its security posture, including indefinite border closures. Afghanistan’s trade collapsed to approximately $1 billion, with thousands of trucks stranded and perishable goods spoiled. Pakistan, by contrast, sustained a limited economic impact. This strategic asymmetry exposes the Taliban’s failure to manage the TTP. The Taliban’s mismanagement transformed Pakistan’s measured security measures into the scapegoat for Afghanistan’s own economic crisis.
- Stranded Cargo and Humanitarian Fallout
Thousands of trucks carrying essential goods like fruits, coal, and pharmaceuticals are stranded at Torkham and Chaman, causing daily losses exceeding $2.5 million. The Taliban’s failure to enforce law and order along trade corridors has directly caused this humanitarian and economic catastrophe.
Strategic Misstep and Afghanistan’s Failed Pivot
Despite formal engagement with Iran (Chabahar) and Central Asia, Afghanistan cannot replace the immediacy and volume of trade with Pakistan. While diversifying sounds brilliant in theory, the Taliban’s mismanagement and “stellar” security negligence are making Afghanistan bleed economic resources faster than it can even think about finding alternatives.
Pakistan’s trade corridor, historically the shortest and most reliable route, saw bilateral trade collapse to $1 billion. Iran accounts for $1.64 billion in imports, but infrastructure bottlenecks, political tensions, and limited port capacity prevent this route from making up for the losses caused by disrupted trade with Pakistan. Likewise, Central Asian routes are geographically distant, dependent on Taliban cooperation, and slow to operationalize. Despite Taliban efforts to find alternatives, Afghanistan bears the brunt of the losses, while Pakistan remains relatively stable. The claim that Pakistan is “weaponizing trade” falls apart under scrutiny. It is the Taliban’s mismanagement, failure to control the TTP, and inability to sustain viable trade corridors that directly drives Afghanistan’s economic and humanitarian crisis.
Taliban Accountability and Strategic Realignment
The narrative that Pakistan is weaponizing trade is a deliberate misrepresentation. In reality:
- Pakistan acted with strategic patience and restraint for four years.
- The Taliban weaponized Afghan soil, allowing TTP sanctuaries and orchestrating cross-border attacks.
- Pakistan’s border restrictions and repatriation campaigns are defensive measures, not offensive economic coercion.
- Afghanistan bears the brunt of economic collapse, suffering catastrophic trade losses, stranded cargo, and revenue shortfalls due to Taliban mismanagement.
The Taliban’s inaction has forced Pakistan to prioritize security over trade, leaving Afghanistan hemorrhaging resources while Pakistan maintains defensive stability. Unless the Taliban actively neutralize TTP sanctuaries and formally recognize the Durand Borde, the current asymmetry will continue, demonstrating that Kabul is itself responsible for the bilateral breakdown and economic catastrophe.
