Islamabad / Kabul — As winter sets in, thousands of Afghan migrants returning from Pakistan and Iran say they are struggling to secure the most basic necessities such as shelter, heating, documentation, and access to aid, raising concerns over the Islamic Emirate’s limited absorption capacity amid one of the region’s largest unplanned population movements in years.
The returnees interviewed by TOLOnews described a bleak picture. Makeshift tents, long waits for assistance, and difficulties in obtaining electronic ID cards (tazkira), is a requirement for accessing formal services.
“Our main problem is that we have no shelter. When we return, we don’t know where to go,” said Abdul Baqi, who recently crossed back from Pakistan. Another returnee, Abdul Bari, echoed the sentiment: “Most people are homeless, spending their days in the streets and along the roads.”
Families report that available aid is “insufficient” and that requests for tents, blankets and heating support remain unmet as temperatures begin to drop across eastern and central provinces.
A Humanitarian Surge Without a Plan
According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), more than 400,000 Afghans returned from Iran and Pakistan between 1 September and 18 October, while Islamabad-based South Asia Times’s broader analysis estimates around 2.4 million returns in 2025, a number far beyond the state’s current reintegration capacity.
Despite receiving around US$80 million per month in humanitarian and donor inflows, the Islamic Emirate has yet to establish a structured national reintegration strategy. Provincial administrations in Nangarhar, Kabul, Laghman, Herat, and Nimroz report severe shortages in housing, water access and income-generation opportunities.
“We need shelter and winter essentials,” said Abdul Qahar, another returnee. “Without tents, heaters or basic supplies, our children will not survive the cold.”
As per TOLOnews, the National Statistics and Information Authority (NSIA) of Afghanistan says it has ordered provincial offices to prioritize ID issuance for returning citizens, but returnees claim delays persist and that local offices often redirect them back to their home villages.
Pakistan’s Position: Repatriation Is a Legal & Regional Trend
Pakistani officials maintain that the returns are part of a broader regional and global repatriation trend, not a uniquely Pakistani action.
Iran continues mass deportations, Türkiye has tightened removal procedures, and European states have accelerated returns of Afghans whose asylum claims were rejected.
Islamabad insists the decision stems from security, documentation, and economic concerns, and follows decades of hosting millions of Afghans with limited to no international burden-sharing.
SAT’s latest study notes that while repatriation is taking place across multiple countries, the humanitarian pressure is landing almost entirely inside Afghanistan due to the Emirate’s weak absorption and service-delivery systems, not because of repatriation alone.
Governance Gaps: A Core Driver of the Crisis
SAT’s analysis finds that the core pressure behind the mounting humanitarian crisis is rooted not in repatriation alone, but in Afghanistan’s internal governance limitations.
Despite nearly 2.4 million returnees arriving this year, the Taliban regime of Afghanistan has not developed a national reintegration policy capable of absorbing such numbers. Shelter infrastructure remains critically insufficient, particularly as winter approaches, leaving thousands of families exposed to freezing temperatures.
Administrative bottlenecks, especially slow and inconsistent issuance of electronic ID cards, continue to block returnees from accessing aid and basic services. At the same time, the economy has contracted sharply, with poverty levels exceeding 90 percent, and local provincial administrations have neither the fiscal capacity nor the institutional bandwidth to manage sudden population surges. These structural gaps sit at the heart of the crisis, even as the Taliban regime urges neighboring countries to halt forced returns.
Returnees Caught Between States
While some Afghan migrants report harsher treatment in Pakistan following worsening bilateral tensions, returnees say the real struggle begins once they enter Afghanistan, where jobs, housing, schooling and basic services are severely limited.
“Winter is near, and without proper resources, it is difficult to take care of our children,” said Habibullah, a returnee from Pakistan.
For families like his, the challenge is immediate. A race against winter in a country where humanitarian systems are overstretched, state capacity is thin, and millions are arriving to provinces already grappling with poverty and underdevelopment.
