Islamabad/Kabul — The debate over why America wants Bagram back has sparked concerns across the region, with defense analysts warning of far-reaching implications for China, Pakistan, and the Taliban government in Kabul.

US–India Tensions and China’s Watch

Defense analyst Brigadier (Retd.) Syed Nazir told Hindukush Tribune Network (HTN) that one major reason behind Washington’s push is the cooling of ties between the United States and India.

“There had been a perception that America was using Indian territory to monitor China. But it now appears that the United States has decided to use Bagram Airbase to keep watch on China’s strategic assets,” Nazir said.

He added that the issue is particularly sensitive for Beijing, given that China shares a border with Afghanistan and has growing economic interests there. “China has its eyes on Afghanistan’s mineral resources and intends to use Afghan territory in the future to extend major development projects into Central Asian countries,” he noted.

Taliban in a Dilemma

According to Nazir, the Bagram issue poses a major challenge for the Taliban. “Whether the US seizes the base by force or the Taliban hand it over willingly, in either case the Taliban government will face resistance from its opponents,” he said.

Strained Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations

The debate comes as Pakistan–Afghanistan ties are already under severe strain. Islamabad has accused Kabul of allowing sanctuaries and support for the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other militant groups.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently warned the Taliban government to choose between Pakistan and the TTP. Analysts say relations between the two neighbors have rarely been this tense.

Former Pakistani Consul General in Kandahar, Umar Ali Sherzai, told HTN that Islamabad could even consider “extreme measures” to curb cross-border terrorism.

“If the Afghan Taliban do not distance themselves from the TTP, Pakistan could launch unilateral action against these outlawed groups inside Afghanistan, which could even topple the Taliban government,” Sherzai said.

He further claimed that most nations, already dissatisfied with Kabul, would back Pakistan in such a move, and alleged that “90 percent of the Afghan population wants the Taliban government to be overthrown.”

Diverging Views on Pakistan’s Options

Not all Pakistani diplomats agree. Former ambassador to Afghanistan, Abrar Hussain, urged restraint, warning against military action.

“Pakistan should avoid operations or steps against the Taliban government and instead pursue dialogue,” he told HTN. “Islamabad already faces accusations of interfering in Afghanistan’s internal affairs, and any such action would only strengthen those allegations.”

Afghan Response

For its part, the Taliban government continues to deny hosting anti-Pakistan militants. Afghanistan’s defense minister recently dismissed Islamabad’s accusations, saying Pakistan’s intelligence agencies were “weak” and unwilling to accept responsibility for domestic failures.

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid echoed this line, urging both countries to avoid a blame game. He said Pakistan and Afghanistan should “maintain relations as equal and good neighboring states.