Militant Surge in Northern Afghanistan Alarms Central Asia

Kabul: A dangerous militant surge along Afghanistan’s northern borders is triggering alarm across Central Asian Republics (CARs). Regional governments, especially Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, are increasingly worried about the unchecked expansion of terrorist groups near their frontiers.

Intelligence reports from June 2025 confirm that thousands of extremists, including fighters linked to ISKP, ETIM, and Jundallah, are now active in northern provinces such as Badakhshan and Takhar. This growing presence coincides with the Taliban government’s recent downsizing of its security forces, which cut nearly 20% of personnel in key institutions.

Weakened Border Control Fuels Infiltration

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IAG) has failed to maintain robust border enforcement. With fewer security personnel and limited oversight, militants now exploit the porous Afghan-Tajik border. The CSTO estimates that between 4,000 to 7,000 foreign and local fighters are positioned near the border.

Officials in Dushanbe and Tashkent are stepping up their border deployments. However, rough terrain and local sympathies are hampering full containment. The risk of infiltration and radicalization remains high.

Meanwhile, Pakistan has warned that this militant buildup may spill into its western regions. Islamabad believes the IAG’s failure to dismantle terror sanctuaries threatens not only Pakistan but the entire region. Afghan ethnic tensions and internal factionalism have also created openings for external actors to exploit unrest.

Regional Projects and Stability at Risk

The deteriorating security landscape is casting a shadow on vital connectivity and trade initiatives. Projects like the Trans-Afghan Railway and CASA-1000 energy corridor are now under threat. Investors and foreign partners fear instability could derail infrastructure goals.

There is also growing concern over India’s alleged covert support to some militant networks. Security analysts suggest this strategy aims to destabilize Pakistan’s western border while undermining regional cooperation led by China and Russia.

During the May 2025 CIS Security Forum, Kyrgyz authorities called for coordinated action. They proposed enhanced intelligence-sharing, joint patrols, and support for border security reforms in Afghanistan. The SCO and CSTO are now reviewing possible responses.

As Central Asian states scramble to address the crisis, many agree on one point: the militant surge in northern Afghanistan must be contained before it escalates into a broader regional conflict.