Kabul: The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is expected to initiate the construction of strategic dams on the Kunar River, a critical transboundary waterway that originates in Pakistan’s Chitral region and re-enters Pakistan after flowing through Afghanistan’s Nuristan and Kunar provinces.
According to Afghanistan’s Ministry of Water and Energy, Emir Hibatullah Akhundzada has directed authorities to begin work immediately and award contracts exclusively to Afghan firms. This decision reflects Kabul’s growing ambition to exercise sovereign control over natural resources and reduce economic dependence on regional powers.
Afghan Officials Emphasize Sovereignty and Energy Security
Afghanistan’s Minister of Water and Energy, Mullah Abdul Latif Mansoor, stated that “Afghanistan has the strategic right to make decisions about its water resources.” He described the dams as vital components of the country’s energy security strategy, aimed at expanding hydropower capacity, improving irrigation networks, and strengthening domestic resilience.
Deputy Minister of Information, Mujahid Farahi, confirmed that the Taliban administration has issued operational directives to commence preliminary work, signaling a shift toward infrastructure-based state consolidation.
Pakistan’s Water-Security Concerns and Strategic Implications
The development has sparked serious strategic concern in Pakistan, where policymakers and security experts fear that upstream control of the Kunar and Kabul rivers could undermine Pakistan’s water sovereignty. Reduced water inflows could directly affect agricultural production and hydropower generation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab, regions critical to Pakistan’s food security and energy supply. The Kunar River serves as a lifeline for millions of people downstream, and any alteration in its flow could have strategic, economic, and environmental consequences for Pakistan’s national security architecture.
Hydro-Politics and Regional Power Dynamics
Observers argue that Afghanistan’s decision mirrors India’s long-standing hydro-diplomacy strategy, where upstream water control is used as a geopolitical instrument. Analysts suggest that Afghanistan’s dam initiative may mark the beginning of a hydro-political realignment in South Asia, with Kabul asserting leverage over downstream Islamabad.
Given the absence of a formal water-sharing treaty between Pakistan and Afghanistan, this move carries the potential to escalate into a strategic confrontation, reminiscent of other regional resource-based rivalries.
The Need for Strategic Water Diplomacy
Experts emphasize that Pakistan must adopt a multi-dimensional water diplomacy strategy, engaging both bilaterally and through regional forums such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
They recommend initiating dialogue mechanisms, data-sharing protocols, and confidence-building measures (CBMs) on transboundary rivers to prevent the weaponization of water resources. A failure to institutionalize such measures could turn the Kunar River dispute into a chronic strategic vulnerability for Pakistan.
Regional Stability and the Path Forward
To safeguard its interests, Pakistan may need to leverage geo-economic tools, intelligence cooperation, and diplomatic engagement to ensure that Afghanistan’s water projects remain transparent and mutually beneficial. Regional powers, including China and Central Asian states, could play a mediating role in fostering a cooperative water-governance framework.
Ultimately, the Kunar River dam project is not just an engineering plan; it is a strategic maneuver that could reshape South Asia’s hydro-political balance. The coming months will test whether Islamabad and Kabul can transform this potential flashpoint into a platform for regional cooperation and sustainable security.
