In Kuala Lumpur this week, world leaders gather for the 47th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit and the accompanying East Asia Summit. Narendra Modi chose virtual attendance instead of travelling in person, a decision that rules out any face to face meeting with Donald Trump, by design.

Once India’s story was one of ascendancy, from regional actor to global influencer. Now the narrative is visibly shifting. With Modi stepping back from the summit floor and his delegation led by external affairs minister S. Jaishankar, New Delhi is forfeiting soft power in rooms others fill, while rivals collect the levers of agenda control.

The Shifting Optics of Power

Behind the optics lie two overlapping trajectories. First, U.S. attention has tilted. Analysts note Washington increasingly views Islamabad’s military leadership as a practical interlocutor on the May India Pakistan de-escalation, a development that complicates Delhi’s claim to decisive regional agency. Commentary by Indian security observers flagged that India’s refusal to publicly acknowledge U.S. mediation in that crisis soured the bilateral rhythm with the U.S. The deeper message: the absence of Modi from key summits now coincides with India’s diminishing maneuverability.

The Decline of India’s Multilateral Streak

Second, India’s multilateral streak is fading. At the Sharm el Sheikh Peace Summit in Egypt, Modi skipped the meeting entirely despite an invitation, sending a junior minister instead.

At the same time India abstained on major multilateral resolutions addressing the Gaza crisis, even as independent UN mechanisms described Israel’s campaign as genocidal. Those abstentions may have been legally defensible, but they altered India’s postcolonial narrative of moral leadership.

The consequences are tangible. Bilateral access frays when a head of government is absent. Trade deals, defence pacts and supply chain wins often hinge on corridor meetings, handshake optics, and informal talks. India’s steering wheel is in hand, but the driver is on the passenger seat. Meanwhile, competitors, particularly Pakistan in recent months, are making the moves India once hoped to lead.

The Regional Balance Moves Beyond Delhi

Across the region, the balance of power is shifting in slow but unmistakable ways. Pakistan’s recent diplomatic surge, from deepening defence coordination with Saudi Arabia to visible participation in East Asian circles, signals a quiet inversion of roles. Where New Delhi once defined the pace and optics of South Asian relevance, it now finds itself explaining absences while others take the stage.

ASEAN, too, reflects this recalibration. Wedged between Chinese assertiveness and American reassurance, this year’s Kuala Lumpur summit was widely seen as a test of how middle powers could steady an uneasy region. Modi’s decision to stay home left a gap that others were quick to fill. Japan, Indonesia, and even Vietnam moved with intent, strengthening ties with Washington and Beijing through overlapping trade and security platforms.

In diplomacy, absence speaks louder than silence. At a time when presence signals reliability, India looked hesitant, guarded, and reactive. The initiative has shifted, and the region’s center of gravity is quietly moving beyond Delhi.

Why Leadership Presence Still Matters

Modi’s absence from key summits might be attributed to festival scheduling, election planning or domestic priority. In diplomacy, however, such absences carry meaning. Skipping the room where decisions are made means leaving the agenda and drafts to others. If India wants its voice to shape tomorrow’s order, its leader must reclaim the chair in person, not the icon at the back of the virtual grid.

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