KHARTOUM — The city of El‑Fasher, once a bustling hub in North Darfur, has become the tragic epicenter of Sudan’s civil war. In late October 2025, paramilitary forces of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured the city after an 18-month siege. The offensive, analysts say, marks not just a battlefield victory but the strategic confirmation of Sudan’s fragmentation.

For months, El-Fasher’s residents endured food shortages, water outages, and brutal shelling. Then the siege broke. Within days of RSF’s entry, medical groups and satellite imagery documented widespread killings of civilians, destruction of hospitals, and the flight of tens of thousands of people. The humanitarian and strategic ramifications go far beyond Darfur.

The Siege That Broke a city

El-Fasher was the last major holdout of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in Darfur — a linchpin of national authority in the region. But for over a year, the RSF methodically cut off supply lines, captured key corridors, and tightened the noose around the city:

• The road north to Mellit was blocked, halting aid convoys.
• The camp of displaced persons at Abu Shouk was encircled, turning an IDP zone into a zone of siege.
• Once the chokehold was completed, the RSF moved in.

The humanitarian collapse was immediate. According to the local Sudan Doctors Network, at least 1,500 people were killed in just the first days following the takeover — described as “a true genocide”.

One of the worst incidents occurred at the Saudi Maternity Hospital: The World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that more than 460 patients and companions were killed during repeated attacks. “The WHO is appalled and deeply shocked,” said Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

A Struggle for Power and Territory

Sudan’s war began in April 2023 as a military power struggle and has evolved into a full-scale conflict for territory, resources, and identity. The RSF, once a paramilitary adjunct, now claims control of all five major capitals of Darfur. Analysts say the west of Sudan has effectively slipped from SAF control, signaling a shift from civil war to state fracture.

Military experts characterize this as a textbook case of “power vacuum” and “territorial consolidation”: the RSF acts not just as an army, but as a governing force in the west, collecting taxes, enforcing order, and controlling key logistics routes. SAF, meanwhile, retains the Nile-Valley corridor and Port Sudan but is increasingly limited in reach.

Humanitarian Catastrophe

The human toll of this strategic redrawing is staggering. The UN estimates more than 12 million people have been displaced and over 25 million face acute food insecurity across Sudan.

Civilians who fled El-Fasher described being shot at while escaping, women being abducted en route, and children dying of hunger in camps. Human Rights Watch documented mass executions of individuals caught leaving the city under RSF fire.

Many describe the current situation as a repeat of the early-2000s Darfur genocide, but on a broader scale. The ethnic groups targeted largely match those previously persecuted: the Fur, Zaghawa, and Masalit.

Urgent Alarms and Failed Diplomacy

At an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council, Assistant Secretary-General for Africa Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee told delegates: “The situation is simply horrifying. There is no safe passage for civilians to leave the city of El-Fasher.”

Meanwhile, major Arab states issued strong condemnations. Saudi Arabia called the RSF attacks “grave human-rights violations,” and Egypt raised its state of alert over possible spill-over. Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey also condemned the violence.

These statements mark a rare unified diplomatic denunciation, but relief agencies warn that words alone cannot alter ground realities. As one UN aid official put it: “We are watching genocide unfold in slow motion.”

A Nation in Pieces

The capture of El-Fasher signifies more than a shift in the front line; it confirms a de facto partition of Sudan. With the RSF controlling Darfur and parts of Kordofan and the SAF anchored in the east, the country is now bifurcated: two polities, two resource bases, two strategic frameworks.

Some regional analysts warn that Sudan could follow the path of South Sudan not just through division, but by sliding into a muzzled state where central authority vanishes and armed actors carve out regional fiefdoms.

Voices from the Ground

Fatima Hassan, a 34-year-old mother who fled El-Fasher, said:

“We buried people with our bare hands. My husband was shot while fetching water. We ran and we are still running.”

Doctors working in camps where displaced families now shelter say:

“Children are starving. Hospitals are too dangerous. The war has become a siege on life itself.”

What Comes Next?

Most observers believe the next major battlefield will be Kordofan, which connects the RSF-controlled west with the SAF-controlled east. Whoever prevails there will influence Sudan’s final territorial settlement.

Peace talks have repeatedly collapsed. A September 2025 mediation effort backed by the UAE, U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Egypt failed when the SAF refused to negotiate with the RSF, citing its genocidal record. The RSF, meanwhile, declared its own parallel civil structure in western Sudan.

Diplomatic experts say: unless there is credible international coercion, such as arms embargoes, enforcement of humanitarian corridors, and accountability mechanisms, the war will continue for years. The clock, they warn, is not running out for this conflict; it has already expired.

A Broken Nation

Sudan stands on the brink of disappearance as a unified state. The fall of El-Fasher is not merely the loss of a city but a collapse of trust, of governance, and of hope.

Maps will one day show RSF flags flying over Darfur, lines of refugees streaming west, and hospitals turned to rubble. But for the millions still caught in the war, the worst map is the one etched into their own lives: no home, no safe route, no future.

As one displaced teacher said,

“Sudan has no government, no peace, and no future right now. We are just waiting, hoping that someone, somewhere, will remember us.”

Also See: Sudan Urges Global Action Against RSF War Crimes