Islamabad — Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said on Monday that the recently agreed ceasefire between Islamabad and Kabul will hold only if the Afghan Taliban prevent terrorist attacks originating from Afghan soil. Speaking to Al Jazeera Arabic and later to Reuters, Asif framed the accord as primarily aimed at ending the long-running terrorism along the frontier and warned the truce hinges on Kabul’s compliance.
He told Al Jazeera the agreement’s “main thrust” was to stop the terrorism that has plagued Pakistan’s border areas for years and said both countries had agreed to make “serious efforts” to bring militants under control. In a separate interview with Reuters, Asif stressed the same point: the ceasefire depends on the Afghan Taliban’s ability to rein in cross-border attackers. He added that the written accord, signed by Pakistan, Afghanistan, Türkiye and Qatar, explicitly bars incursions and must be respected.
Years of Cross-Border Violence
Islamabad says the recent flare-up was neither sudden nor unjustified but the result of protracted cross-border terrorism originating in Afghanistan. Pakistani officials point to a surge in infiltrations and militant formations over recent months: between June and September 2025, intelligence agencies documented a 36% rise in organized infiltration groups (tashkeels) and a 48% increase in militants crossing into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
Analysts say 172 tashkeels, nearly 4,000 fighters, moved into KP in that period, with an additional 83 tashkeels (about 1,200 fighters) entering Balochistan from southern Afghan provinces. Islamabad also reports that 70–80% of recent infiltrators are Afghan nationals, a sharp rise from previous years.
The 36th United Nations Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team report (July 2025) is cited by Islamabad as corroboration. The UN document notes active Al-Qaida and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) training sites in multiple Afghan provinces and warns of continued permissive conditions for militant groups under de-facto authorities.
Islamabad’s Response
Pakistan says it pursued diplomatic channels for years while militant sanctuaries expanded. From ulema delegations and tribal jirgas to ministerial and intelligence visits, Islamabad maintains it exhausted non-military avenues before resorting to targeted strikes against confirmed militant hideouts. Officials describe recent operations as lawful self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter and say they were carefully planned to minimise civilian harm.
Kabul’s Denial
Afghan Taliban Defence Minister Mullah Muhammad Yaqoob Mujahid, speaking on Al Jazeera Arabic after Doha talks, portrayed the Doha understanding as a “gesture of goodwill” and stressed mutual respect and dialogue. He rejected allegations that the Taliban provide sanctuaries for groups that attack Pakistan, and accused Islamabad of initiating the recent escalation. Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid similarly dismissed claims of complicity and described the term “terrorism” as being used subjectively by Pakistan.
What Comes Next
Analysts say the differences between Islamabad’s documented intelligence and Kabul’s public denials create a credibility gap that must be closed for the ceasefire to hold. Pakistan has repeatedly submitted coordinates, dossiers and evidence to Afghan authorities, officials assert, but say those sites were not dismantled. Islamabad also points to arms and materiel left in Afghanistan after foreign withdrawals as feeding militant capabilities.
Qatar and Türkiye are party to the written understanding and are expected to play roles in verification and follow-up talks. Pakistani officials welcomed mediators’ involvement, saying it internationalises the issue and places stronger pressure on Kabul to act. A next round of talks is scheduled in Istanbul on October 25 to develop mechanisms for enforcing the agreement.
Asif told Reuters that everything “hinges on this one clause” of the agreement: whether Kabul will stop militants from launching attacks. He warned that if it does not, Islamabad retains the right to respond against terrorist hideouts wherever they are found. In his blunt assessment: “We were being attacked. Our territory was being attacked. So we just did tit for tat. We were paying them in the same coin… They are in Kabul. They are everywhere. Wherever they are, we will attack them. Kabul is not, you know, a no-go area.”
“With sovereignty comes responsibility,” a senior Pakistani diplomat said. Afghanistan must match Pakistan’s goodwill with responsible and verifiable steps to prevent its soil from being used to attack a neighbour, only then can the Doha ceasefire become a durable peace.
