Is Kabul Sacrificing Its Own Economy for Politics?

Historic Trade Ties Under Strain

Trade and cross-border connectivity between Pakistan and Afghanistan have historically served as the cornerstone of their bilateral relations. However, following a month of border clashes, diplomatic tensions, and three unproductive rounds of negotiations, the Afghan government has directed its industrialists and traders to seek alternative trade routes and partners instead of Pakistan.

Baradar’s Warning and Policy Shift

In a high-level meeting chaired by Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, it was hinted that Afghanistan may soon impose restrictions on the import of medicines and other essential commodities from Pakistan. Meanwhile, Afghanistan’s leading business tycoon, Khan Jan Alokozay, has warned that suspending trade with Pakistan would effectively push Afghanistan’s economy toward collapse, terming it an “economic massacre” of Afghan traders.

Economic Paralysis at the Border

This decision comes at a time when the Pakistan–Afghanistan border has remained closed for 32 consecutive days. Major crossing points Torkham, Chaman, and Ghulam Khan are completely inactive. Reports suggest that more than 8,000 trucks, loaded with goods worth USD 50–70 million, are stranded, including food items, fruits, medicines, and industrial supplies that are now at risk of spoilage.

Trade Figures and Human Impact

Last year, the bilateral trade volume reached nearly USD 1.2 billion, with Pakistan accounting for over 70% of the total share. Pakistan exports medicines, construction materials, textiles, food, and oil to Afghanistan, while importing dried fruits, herbs, coal, and some agricultural products in return. It is estimated that over 150,000 laborers, drivers, clearing agents, and traders are directly affected by the current deadlock.

Geographic and Economic Advantage of Pakistan

According to economic experts, trade between the two neighbors is not only geographically convenient but also cost-effective. Pakistan’s port cities Karachi and Gwadar provide natural routes for Afghan traders, reducing transportation costs by up to 40% compared to other regional options.

A Political Decision with Economic Consequences

At first glance, Kabul’s move appears to be a temporary political reaction, but its economic consequences could prove long-lasting. At a time when Afghanistan is already struggling with a 60% decline in foreign investment, depleting reserves, and 12% inflation, cutting trade ties with Pakistan amounts to further weakening its own economic foundations.

Limited Impact on Pakistan, Greater Loss for Afghanistan

Pakistan’s economy, too, will feel the impact, particularly in the border regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, where cross-border trade is a key source of livelihood.
However, experts believe Pakistan’s loss will be comparatively limited, as it still has access to alternative export markets in the Middle East and Central Asia.

The Road Ahead

If Afghanistan genuinely seeks self-reliance, it must focus on transparent trade policies, economic protection, and regional cooperation rather than severing ties with its closest neighbor. Otherwise, this decision will not only deepen the economic hardships of the Afghan people but also threaten the fragile prospects of regional peace and stability.