The Amir Hamza announcement: what was said and what it really means
In early January 2026, at Kabul’s Amir Hamza Military Academy, Taliban commander Syedullah Saeed delivered a message from the group’s supreme leader, Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada.
The order said any Afghan who carries out attacks outside the country will be disobeying the Amir and will no longer be recognized as a “Mujahid”.
On the surface, this sounded like a new and tough religious ruling. In reality, it was carved out from existential crisis: a political warning issued at a very dangerous moment for the Afghan interim government.
This is not the first ban on cross-border jihad
The Taliban have issued similar instructions before. In August 2023, Hibatullah declared cross-border fighting “haram” and said jihad was only allowed inside Afghanistan and only under his command.
In December 2025, more than 1,000 pro-Taliban clerics in Kabul repeated the same message in a joint fatwa. Yet despite these orders, groups like the TTP and others continued to operate from Afghan soil. The policy did not change the reality on the ground.
So why repeat the same message in a harsher way now?
The real question is not what the Taliban said, but why they felt the need to say it again, and in such strong language. This time, the leadership did not just ban the act. It attacked the identity of those who disobey by stripping them of the title “Mujahid”.
This shows urgency and fear. It suggests the Taliban believe the cost of inaction has become far more dangerous than before.
Pakistan is no longer in a waiting mode
To the east, Pakistan has hardened its position after years of deadly attacks by the TTP from Afghan soil. In late 2025 and early 2026, Islamabad closed borders, accelerated the return of Afghan refugees and produced a hard stance on terrorism emanating from Afghanistan on multiple foreign office briefings.
The message was simple: Pakistan is prepared for large and complex counter-terror operations inside its territory and will not tolerate safe havens across the border forever.
Iran, the US, and the risk of a wider fire
To the west, Iran is under growing pressure from internal unrest and renewed American attention. If tensions there escalate, US “over-the-horizon” strikes in the region could return.
The Taliban know that if Afghanistan is seen as hosting multiple armed groups, it could again become part of a wider conflict even if it tries to stay neutral.
The UN report that exposed the credibility problem
In December 2025, a UN Security Council report (S/2025/796) said more than 20 militant groups were still operating from Afghanistan, including the TTP, IS-K, and Al-Qaeda. It also said the Taliban had absorbed some foreign fighters into their own ranks instead of removing them.
The emergence of groups like Ittihad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan in 2025 further damaged Kabul’s claims. This report made it harder for the Taliban to convince the world that their earlier fatwas meant anything in practice.
A weak economy makes war an existential risk
Inside Afghanistan, the situation is already close to breaking point. Unemployment is around 75 percent, the banking system is weak and foreign aid is limited. Another conflict, or even limited foreign strikes could push the country into complete collapse.
This makes preventing external pressure a matter of regime survival, not just policy preference.
A warning to the world and to their own ranks
This latest decree is not mainly about changing beliefs. It is a signal. It is meant to tell the United States and the region that Kabul does not want to be under a renewed conflict zone.
At the same time, it is meant to warn Taliban fighters and allied groups that disobedience now carries a political and religious price.
The real test is enforcement, not words
The Taliban have said this before. The difference in 2026 is not the sentence, but the fear behind it. If they cannot actually dismantle the networks operating from their soil, no decree will protect them.
The region has changed and patience has run out. This time, repeating the fatwa is not about theology. It is about avoiding becoming the next target.
