The ongoing Chenab water blockade by India has triggered alarm bells in Pakistan, raising concerns over agricultural water shortages and violations of the Indus Waters Treaty. On Monday, the flow of the Chenab River at Marala headworks dropped from 35,000 cusecs to just over 3,000 cusecs within 24 hours.
This dramatic decline follows India’s decision to fill three major reservoirs — Pakal Dul, Baglihar, and Salal — located in the Chenab basin. Together, these dams have a combined storage capacity of over 1.2 million acre-feet. Pakistani officials say India began filling the dams without any prior notification, breaching treaty obligations.
“These sudden blockages are unacceptable,” said a senior Punjab irrigation official. “India is storing water that belongs to us, creating an artificial scarcity downstream.”
According to WAPDA, inflows at Marala dropped to 5,300 cusecs on Monday, with zero outflow. The previous day, inflows were 34,600 cusecs with 25,400 cusecs outflow — a sharp and alarming difference.
The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) warned that the early Kharif season could face a 21% water shortage due to the drop in Chenab flows. If the situation persists, shortages could worsen further into the season.
The Chenab River is vital for irrigation in Punjab, feeding critical canals like the UCC and BRB. Experts also warn that if India suddenly releases the stored water, it could trigger flash floods downstream, risking damage to crops and villages.
Meanwhile, Sindh raised objections over the operation of the Chashma-Jhelum Link Canal by Punjab. Punjab responded that it was using its rightful share, while assuring that Sindh’s allocated 76,000 cusecs is en route and should arrive within days.
A Reuters report also confirmed that India began a “reservoir flushing” process at the Salal and Baglihar dams on May 1, without informing Pakistan. This operation could further disrupt water flow and sediment balance.
With tensions rising and water levels falling, the Chenab water blockade now stands as a serious threat — not only to Pakistan’s agriculture, but also to regional trust and treaty compliance.
