Contrary to prolonged propaganda, the nearly two-and-a-half-month suspension of bilateral trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan has inflicted far greater economic damage on Kabul than Islamabad.
Trade data shows Afghan export losses have reached around 10 per cent since October 10, 2025, compared with roughly 0.6 per cent for Pakistan, underscoring Afghanistan’s heavy dependence on Pakistani markets and transit routes.
Relations deteriorated amid tensions over the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), with Islamabad pressing Kabul to curb cross-border terrorism.
After clashes on October 11, talks facilitated by Turkiye and Qatar, held in Doha and later Istanbul, failed to bridge differences.
Pakistan declared negotiations effectively over on November 7, after which Afghanistan suspended trade ties while Pakistan had already closed key border crossings following the clashes.
Afghanistan’s export dependence exposed
Nearly 46 per cent of Afghanistan’s total exports are destined for Pakistan, many routed onward to India via the Wagah border.
By contrast, Afghanistan accounts for just 3.46 per cent of Pakistan’s global exports.
The imbalance is even starker when transit trade is considered, which represents about 40 per cent of Afghanistan’s total imports and relies heavily on Pakistani land routes and seaports.
India has emerged as Kabul’s second-largest export destination absorbing about 40 per cent of Afghan exports, despite being a non-bordering country.
Exports to other neighbors remain marginal.
This concentration leaves Afghanistan vulnerable, particularly as fruits and vegetables which accounted for 71 per cent of exports in 2024 according to the World Bank, struggle to find alternative buyers.
Pakistan’s exporters feel pressure, but the impact is uneven
Pakistan’s exports to Afghanistan rebounded to $1.39 billion in FY24 after earlier declines, with medicines, rice and cement leading the basket.
However, Afghan officials’ unverified claims of low-quality medicine imports from Pakistan also added unwarranted pressure on common Afghani citizens who have relied heavily on Pakistan’s manufactured medicines for decades.
Since the trade halt, Pakistan’s estimated losses stand at about $222.5 million, affecting exporters in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) where over 90 per cent of shipments pass through customs stations linked to the Torkham corridor.
Transit routes, alternatives and long-term risks
Afghan importers are already shifting orders toward Iran, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkey, with medicines also arriving from India via air cargo.
While prices initially rose in Afghanistan, traders expect stabilization as alternative supply chains mature.
However, to maintain the sustainable trade flow from alternative routes for economically weakened countries is hard to imagine for a longer period of time. Therefore, stable relations with Pakistan are of paramount importance for the interim Afghan government.
The suspension is also disrupting Pakistan’s ambitions to use Afghanistan as a transit corridor to Central Asian states, with stranded cargo on both sides and higher costs via longer routes through Iran.
However, the cost incurred from terrorism in Pakistan is way bigger than the cost of a trade halt with Afghanistan. Pakistan has lost billions of dollars in the war against Indian-sponsored terrorism in Pakistan supported by cross-border entities on the Pak-Afghan border.
As the current halt drags on, both economies face losses, but Afghanistan’s reliance on Pakistan means the heavier toll is being felt in Kabul.
Read more: India Allegedly Using Kabul Airport Route to Arm Fitna al-Khawarij TTP
