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If the US attempts to seize Iran’s Kharg Island, what would the outcome be? Do you think Iran has no plan for its most important island and that US forces would just come like Columbus, wandering and occupy it?
This island is Iran’s most valuable. About 90% of its oil comes from here, located 25 kilometers off the coast. Surely Iran must be aware that this isolated island could be an easy target and that an enemy could take it at any time, stripping Iran of its oil wealth and plunging the country into economic ruin. Hasn’t Iran, facing a power like the US, prepared a strategy for this island, which is the real source of its economic strength? If not, it has nothing left.
There are indications from the US that it intends to seize the island. The US is trapped, its honor is at stake, and its leadership is in the hands of a mercurial man like Trump, who can make disastrous decisions at critical moments. So it is not impossible that the US could launch this attack. But the question is: what would the outcome of this misadventure be?
It appears that the US’s main objective is occupation, not destruction. If destruction were the goal, its air power could have already done it. The deployment of ground forces signals that the purpose is to seize the island, so that once Iran loses its oil wealth, it can be pressured into making decisions favorable to the US. Or perhaps the goal is to claim the oil-rich island as American territory, boosting the US economically.
Suppose the US lands its fastest forces on Kharg, crushes Iranian resistance with overwhelming air power, and occupies it. What happens next? Western observers are writing gleefully that the US would have a vast naval platform only 25 kilometers from Iran, seemingly invulnerable. But they forget: this naval force cannot move, hide, or retreat. Israel is far, and missiles take time to reach it, with Iraq and Jordan in the way. But the island is only 25 kilometers from Iran. Has anyone calculated how quickly Iranian missiles could strike?
A country capable of hitting a US base in Kuwait with pinpoint accuracy an undisclosed base hidden from maps—imagine what it could do to American forces on this island. A soft target, only 25 kilometers away, 4 kilometers wide, 8 kilometers long. Keep in mind that Iranian missiles have already made 13 US bases in the region uninhabitable.
It is said Iran will not launch a major counterattack on the island because that could destroy its own oil facilities, a risk it cannot take. But this assumption is naive. After a US occupation, will Iran care about these facilities? They would become a nightmare for the Americans.
Even if Iran launches only minor resistance, could the US safely extract oil? The Strait of Hormuz remains heavily mined and under missile threat, and Iran could easily disrupt any attempt.
If the US occupies Kharg, it would have to maintain supply lines for troops: weapons, food, medicine, evacuating the wounded. Would Iran allow that under missile threat?
Some argue that after seizing Kharg, Iran would be economically weakened. But what about the rest of Iran’s oil facilities? Once the island is taken, will Iran allow any other oil assets in the region to remain? How many missiles does Iran still have, and where? If chaos ensues, will it only affect Iran or the world, including Europe?
Currently, the Strait of Hormuz is partially closed. US sanctions on Iranian oil have been lifted after 46 years. Imagine production stops at Kharg and Iran retaliates against other oil facilities across the region. Where would the world stand? What would happen to the petrodollar? Deutsche Bank warns this war could end the petrodollar.
As a last scare tactic, some suggest that if Iran resists and US troops are harmed, it could be like Pearl Harbor, potentially leading to a nuclear response. Fine, but what if Iran already has a hidden bomb? In the Cuban Missile Crisis, just showing a missile made the US back down.
And if Iran does not have a retaliatory device, after a nuclear strike on Iran, would the US become “more great” or move closer to its logical end?
