Border stability in South and Central Asia is hanging by a thread. As Israel’s strike on Iran rattles the region, Afghanistan once again risks becoming the epicenter of chaos. For Pakistan, the warning signs are clear: instability in both Kabul and Tehran could ignite a storm of refugee flows, militant infiltration, and sectarian unrest—right across its western frontier.
Rising Refugees, Rising Risks
In the wake of Israel’s attack, Tehran has intensified crackdowns on undocumented Afghans. According to the UNHCR, Iran and Pakistan together host over 5.5 million Afghan refugees. Reports from the Associated Press confirm that 5,000 Afghans are fleeing Iran daily, many with nowhere safe to go. As deportations rise, Pakistan faces pressure it cannot afford.
The humanitarian burden is growing. Only 18% of the UN’s 2025 Afghanistan Humanitarian Response Plan is funded. That means health services, shelter, and food access are stretched thin. Refugees often settle in underdeveloped border regions where poverty and alienation breed radicalization.
Security experts warn this could empower terror networks. The Counterterrorism Group recently stated that groups like TTP and ISIS-K are “very likely” to exploit displaced populations. These conditions, they argue, are ideal for recruitment and rearmament.
Pakistan has already seen the fallout. In April, the military reported killing 54 TTP militants in North Waziristan. According to the ISPR, these militants had infiltrated from Afghanistan and were armed with NATO-grade weapons. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi added that foreign intelligence—especially Indian proxies—was enabling TTP operations across the Durand Line.
These concerns are not new. Pakistani officials have repeatedly pointed to arms left behind by NATO, now circulating among militant groups. Kabul’s failure to dismantle TTP sanctuaries allows these fighters to plan cross-border attacks with impunity. Meanwhile, India’s alleged support for anti-Pakistan elements adds another layer of strategic threat.
Afghanistan Cannot Afford Collapse
Yet, Afghanistan is also suffering. Decades of war have left infrastructure in ruins and governance fragile. Millions remain displaced. And with Taliban control contested by local warlords and ISIS-K factions, even the illusion of order is tenuous.
If Afghanistan implodes again, the region could spiral into prolonged instability. Tehran’s internal unrest—fueled by economic sanctions and political crackdowns—may spill across the border. Already, sectarian tensions are rising. Afghan Shia communities are at risk of being scapegoated, which could provoke tit-for-tat violence in Pakistan’s sensitive areas.
Economically, the stakes are just as high. Trade routes through Afghanistan connect Central Asia to Pakistan and beyond. Disruption means inflation, food insecurity, and increased smuggling. Pakistan’s struggling economy can’t absorb these shocks.
Despite tensions, both Pakistan and Iran share one reality: a destabilized Afghanistan benefits no one. Border regions would become launchpads for terror, trafficking, and unrest. And without robust coordination, missteps could escalate into direct conflict.
What Pakistan Must Do Now
Pakistan must act decisively. First, it should enhance border surveillance and intelligence-sharing with Afghan authorities—without violating sovereignty. Joint patrols and communication hotlines can help prevent infiltration and misunderstandings.
Second, Pakistan should work with international partners to establish buffer zones inside Afghanistan. These camps can host returnees with dignity while ensuring militancy does not take root among them.
Third, humanitarian diplomacy is essential. Islamabad should mobilize donor support for Afghanistan’s stabilization, especially for education, healthcare, and food security. A stable neighbor is the best defense.
Fourth, Pakistan must engage Tehran directly. Shared concerns—refugee management, counter-terrorism, and trade—require mutual trust. A trilateral dialogue involving Kabul, Islamabad, and Tehran may create space for cooperative security planning.
Finally, Islamabad must press its case globally. If India is arming proxies or exploiting Afghan soil, evidence should be presented at forums like the UN or SCO. Strategic clarity is key.
Afghanistan at the Edge : A Region On The Crisis
Two crises—one in the Middle East, one in South Asia—are now intersecting. The result could be a refugee wave, a spike in terror attacks, and widespread instability. Afghanistan cannot afford to collapse again. And Pakistan cannot afford to watch it happen.
This is no longer about foreign policy—it’s about national survival.
Militant groups are waiting for power vacuums. Refugees are fleeing into desperation. And great-power rivalries are playing out in Pakistan’s backyard. For Islamabad, the lesson is simple: engagement is no longer a choice. It’s a necessity.
Now more than ever, border stability must become a national security priority.
